The annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in Virginia featured some projections for this year’s wheat. They raised the wheat planted area a little bit from last year to 47 million acres, the yield was more conservative down to 50 bushels an acre compared to 51.2 last year.

Dan O’Brien, an agricultural economist with Kansas State University Extension attended the forum this year. He says by the time they ran the projected planting and yield through their supply and demand balance sheet it was really pretty minimal changes, ended up with slightly higher stocks or 826 million for next year and 41.2 stocks to use, both of which are marginally higher than they were before.

“I’d say there are no real worries about production,” O’Brien said. “Exports are predicted to be about the same. I would say we have been struggling in hard red winter wheat areas to have strong exports, we’ve been doing okay just not barn busters so you’ve got a continuation of that right now.”

Prices projected at $5.50 a bushel, which is just slightly lower than last year’s price of $5.55.

Allen Featherstone, head of agricultural economics at KSU says with an increase in planted acres and a little bit of a decrease in yield the expectation is that production will drop a little bit from last year.

“This could be a tough year as far as breaking even in wheat,” Featherstone said.

Unanswered questions in the wheat market that could end up with higher prices include the amount of wheat that will come out of the Ukraine and Russia area. War issues and geopolitical conflict are in play. There have been some really dry conditions in Russia and they have announced that they may be cutting back their own exports to make sure they have domestic needs covered.

“If that comes about it is likely there would be some support for U.S. wheat, although that will have to show up with actual buying and actual exports of U.S. wheat,” O’Brien said. “Until that happens consistently and strongly the market is going to say ‘we’re here somewhere between five and six dollars and just see where we go’.”

In the bigger long term picture there is this looming issue out there of world supply and demand tightening up to historically low levels but the market seems to be comfortable at this point, not really responding to it until they have to.

“My thoughts on the wheat market are kind of so-so at the moment in terms of what can happen,” O’Brien said. “Our biggest issue now is that we’re into March and almost warm enough to break dormancy and see what we have in the fields.”

O’Brien says he thinks U.S. crop production worries or lack of worry will start to take over in April and May and toward summer harvest and we’ll see where the market situation takes us.

The next big date in the grain market is the set of reports coming out on March 31.